A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
