Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
